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A Planet of 3 Billion: Mapping Humanity's Long History of Ecological Destruction and Finding Our Way to a Resilient Future A Global Citizen's Guide to Saving the Planet Hardcover – August 27, 2019
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How many people can the Earth support? Tucker makes the case that the Earth's 'carrying capacity' is limited to 3 billion humans, and that humanity's century long binge has incurred an unsustainable ecological debt that must be paid down promptly, or else cataclysm awaits. Given that our species has already surpassed 7.5 billion, and is fast approaching 9 billion or more, this is an audacious claim that everyone who cares about the fate of our planet and our species has a responsibility to evaluate for themselves. Tucker, in his exploration of the frontiers of scientific knowledge, urges all of us to question his estimate. He encourages us to marshal our own data and calculations, if we are so inclined, so that we can all engage in this existential debate as educated global citizens equipped to navigate what promises to be an uncertain future.
Equal parts history, science, economics, demography, conservation thinking, ethics, and foreign affairs - all through a geographic lens - this provocative book fundamentally redefines how you will think about the fate of humanity, and the planet from which our species evolved. In part a continuation of E.O. Wilson's Half-Earth thesis, Tucker decrypts the complex story of how humanity has come to burden the finite geography of our planet in unsustainable ways. Tucker argues that we in fact have "A People Problem" which goes far beyond the very real perils of climate change and biodiversity loss. Tucker takes us on a journey through the history and geography of the ecological devastation wrought by humanity, and the persistent wastes that we have accumulated, as our population has grown relentlessly. Only by thinking geographically, Tucker argues, can we truly understand the threats to humanity and the Planet Earth that sustains us. In A Planet of 3 Billion, biogeography, human geography, and geostrategic thinking collide to illuminate the most pressing issues facing our world today.
Beyond a detailed tour of this seemingly insurmountable challenge, Tucker offers solutions. Tucker makes a convincing case that renewal is possible, and that we can indeed find our way to a new sustainable population plateau of 3 billion without some ominous genocide, epidemic, or ecological collapse. Women - educated, empowered, integrated in to the workforce, and with access to family planning technologies - hold the key to our ecological salvation. All of us bear the responsibility for empowering women if we are to collectively chart a safe path to this new lower population plateau. And, together we must conjure up new ways to give Earth's panoply of unique ecoregions a voice, if we are to achieve an ecologically sustainable planet for our species over the long run.
This book is for anyone who is interested in the world around them, concerned about the fate of the planet, and seeking insights that can help them become part of the solutions that would put us on a path to a resilient future.
- Print length342 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherAtlas Observatory Press
- Publication dateAugust 27, 2019
- Dimensions6 x 0.81 x 9 inches
- ISBN-10057851530X
- ISBN-13978-0578515304
Editorial Reviews
Review
Like Rachel Carson's Silent Spring, more than a half century ago, this book should serve as a wake-up call to a generation that is more in tune than ever with our planet's pulse. As Tucker proclaims, our planet has a people problem. And, as humanity and nature struggle to coexist sustainably, it is time for all of us to focus all our efforts on bending the human population curve downward. Tucker's formula begins with the empowerment of women, worldwide - but his cookbook for global citizens helps guide our collective actions to a resilient future. A Planet of 3 Billion is essential reading for anyone who cares about the fate of our planet and our species.
Dr. Jane Goodall, DBE
Founder - the Jane Goodall Institute & UN Messenger of Peace
It is easy to marvel at the sheer enormity and growth of our world, but it is irresponsible to do so without reckoning with its finiteness. In A Planet of 3 Billion, Dr. Christopher Tucker adeptly argues how we can (and we should) shrink the global population from nearing 9 billion to a more manageable 3 billion--and in so doing repay our debt to the planet, a burden it no longer can bear. Timely and instructive, Dr. Tucker's work explores the nuanced and often overlooked relationship between geography, women's empowerment, and leadership-- an intersection which could have tremendous impacts on our future.
General Stanley A. McChrystal, USArmy (Ret.)
Tucker has written an exceptionally broad-ranging, thought-provoking examination of the relationship between expanding human numbers, socio-economic innovations, and ecological degradation. His effort to explore the historical and geographical roots of our current environmental predicament challenges us to think anew about the future of our planet.
Professor Alexander B. Murphy, Rippey Chair of Liberal Arts & Sciences, Department of Geography, University of Oregon. Frmr. President, American Association of Geographers.
Christopher Tucker asks and answers the central question of the 21st century, that being, how do we build a habitable planet? He answers that we build it in the way humans have always advanced before we lost our way. We had a plan and we adjusted to an environment. Now, we are determining the environment. We have become the designer species, but without a design. An invasive species with a brain, but no method to plan. Tucker outlines a thoughtful action plan for long term adaptation and success and does so with the complete set of tools and ideas and theories that will allow for massive human success going forward. This book breaks down the walls of our conceptual prison and offers a path to design freedom for the future. A path we sorely need to find.
Michael M. Crow, President and ASU Foundation Leadership Chair and Professor of Science & Technology Policy, Arizona State University
A sweeping analysis of extraction, combustion and pollution spelling an unsurvivable future for our species unless we adopt dramatic changes in ecosystem protection and practices. It is irresponsible not to read this book.
Vint Cerf, Internet Pioneer
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Product details
- Publisher : Atlas Observatory Press (August 27, 2019)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 342 pages
- ISBN-10 : 057851530X
- ISBN-13 : 978-0578515304
- Item Weight : 1.35 pounds
- Dimensions : 6 x 0.81 x 9 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #2,896,837 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #783 in Demography Studies
- #4,488 in Human Geography (Books)
- #5,349 in Environmental Economics (Books)
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Among demographers it is considered impossible and inappropriate to apply the concept of carrying capacity to humans. Though humans are a biological species like any other, the same rules do not apply, or are impossible to apply because of the variability of technology and culture, or so many think.
Christopher Tucker, a geographer -- current Chairman of the American Geographical Society -- throws caution to the wind and makes a calcuation, which is the title of the book.
The most interesting and important part of the book is how he makes this calculation. He starts with the "Ecological Footprint" measure of environmental impact, produced by Mathis Wackernagel and the Global Footprint Network, which uses immense amounts of data to show whether a country has a surplus or deficit of biological capacity in land area based on its resource consumption. Summed globally, human society is of course in overshoot -- as of 2017 the overshoot is 50%. We are using 1.5 times the resources that would be sustainable, and the overshoot grows every year.
Then he somewhat arbitrarily chooses Switzerland (Wackernagel's home) for the standard of living for humans globally. Using the Ecological Footprint method, Tucker calculates that it would take 3.3 Earths to support the current population of 7.9 billion at the Swiss standard of consumption, and that the Earth can therefore only support 2.4 billion people at that level. Of course this is a comfortable, high income level, though not as extravagant as the U.S. -- it would take 4.8 Earths to support humans at the U.S. level of consumption, and so the carrying capacity would be substantially smaller.
This is quite promising given that it would result in a reduction by approximately two thirds of today's 7.9 billion. This is only a balllpark figure given that Tucker's calcuation "assumes today's mix of technologies," and clearly today's mix of technologies is killing the planet, so it would have to be radically changed so as to be less destructive, including phasing out burning fossil fuels. My strong sense, therefore, is that his calculation is too high, especially when he rounds up from 2.4 to 3 billion. Why round up?
Of course this is all in the realm of what *should* happen, not what is *actually likely* to happen. Tucker's plan for "How to Bring the Population Down to 3 Billion" simply involves empowering women and speeding up the lowering of the fertility rate, which is already falling everywhere as urbanization spreads. He has nothing to say about the particular challenge of sub-Saharan Africa, which is where the vast majority of 21st century population growth is projected to take place.
There is little in the rest of the book that is new or unique. There's nothing wrong with it, but it is mainly redundant -- my apologies to geographers -- leaving only three of the 13 chapters to make an invaluable contribution to solving the ecological crisis.
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